Outlook for 2005

Regarding metals and minerals

The growth of the global economy should remain relatively solid in 2005 despite some slowing down due mainly to the high price of petroleum and a strengthening of the macroeconomic policies of various countries. Stimulated by the performance of the global economy and especially by China’s continuing strong demand, metal and mineral consumption should hold up.

The prices of metallic substances should remain generally high in 2005, and some will continue to rise due to tight markets and a weak supply. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that certain base metals may have attained their cyclical peak in 2004, as production progressively adjusted to market conditions. Moreover, prices will continue to be strongly volatile, reacting in particular to:

• unforeseen interruptions in production;
• fluctuations in the American dollar;
• and changing perceptions with respect to the Chinese demand.
  
  

In all, Québec’s 2005 mineral shipments should continue to benefit from the vigorous global consumption of metals and minerals, and the high average annual prices for many of these commodities.